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Expert Game Picks: Raiders or Steelers?

Oct 11, 2024 at 10:35 AM

Raiders.com Staff

Take a look at who the experts are picking to win Sunday's game.

NFL.com

Daniel Jeremiah: Steelers

Colleen Wolfe: Raiders

Adam Rank: Steelers

Marcas Grant: Steelers

Bucky Brooks: Steelers

Maurice Jones-Drew: Raiders

Grant Gordon: Steelers

Nick Shook: Steelers

Eric Edholm: Steelers

Kevin Patra: Steelers

Related Links

ESPN

Stephania Bell: Steelers

Matt Bowen: Steelers

Mike Clay: Steelers

Jeremy Fowler: Steelers

Dan Graziano: Steelers

Kalyn Kahler: Steelers

Kimberly Martin: Steelers

Eric Moody: Steelers

Jason Reid: Steelers

Lindsey Thiry: Steelers

Seth Wickersham: Steelers

CBS Sports

Pete Prisco: Steelers

Will Brinson: Raiders

Jared Dubin: Steelers

Ryan Wilson: Steelers

John Breech: Steelers

Tyler Sullivan: Steelers

Dave Richard: Steelers

Jamey Eisenberg: Steelers

Pro Football Talk

Mike Florio: Steelers

Chris Simms: Steelers

Sports Illustrated

Albert Breer: Steelers

Mitch Goldich: Steelers

Gilberto Manzano: Steelers

Conor Orr: Steelers

John Pluym: Raiders

Matt Verderame: Steelers

Raiders-Steelers Pick

By Nick Hennion, BETMGM

Based on odds from the BetMGM online sportsbook, I'm taking the Total Under 36.5 Points (-110) in Raiders vs. Steelers.

Since losing Davante Adams to injury, the Raiders have struggled offensively. In their last two games, they're 25th in offensive success rate and 27th in EPA per play.

Most concerning are their passing metrics. Here's the breakdown:

With Adams: 10th in success rate, 18th in EPA/play
Without Adams: 21st in success rate, 27th in EPA/play

If there's a way to exploit Pittsburgh's defense, it's through the air. The Steelers rank 16th in pass EPA per play and 17th in passing success rate allowed.

Comparatively, Pittsburgh is fourth and fifth in rush EPA per play and rush success rate allowed.

At the same time, I question if the Steelers can exploit the Raiders' defensive weakness. Las Vegas sits 28th in rush EPA per play allowed vs. 14th in passing EPA per play allowed.

Interestingly, the Steelers are getting good run blocking and are doing nothing with it. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in run block win rate, yet it sits 23rd in rush EPA per play.

Plus, Las Vegas ranks eighth in run-stop win rate and third in PFF's rush defense rankings. Accordingly, I question how the Steelers move the ball consistently.

This game also matches two historically profitable systems. Since 2019, unders between 32.5 and 39 are 32-13-1 (71%) to the under when the home team is the underdog.

When the home team saw its last game go over the total, the under is 14-1 in those situations, including 11-0 when its last game went over by at least 3.5 points.

Plus, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 60% to the under in conference road games for his career. When the opponent is coming off an over, Tomlin is 30-12-1 (71%) to the under.

Visit the BetMGM sportsbook throughout the season for updated NFL odds. You can also view updated sportsbook promos, including a First Bet Offer for eligible new customers. Also, check out BetMGM Refer A Friend for a bonus!

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Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (12) during practice at Intermountain Health Performance Center.